Youthful Optimism and the Great Gatsby Paradox: A Glance at Intergenerational Mobility
Youth in nations experiencing widespread income disparity are found to hold increased belief in social advancement opportunities.
In intriguing contrast, youth in developing economies, such as Albania, Jamaica, or Kazakhstan, often express a stronger belief in their potential advancement compared to their counterparts in wealthy nations like France or South Korea. This observation stems from a study published in the esteemed journal "Science".
While growth in the economy is not concerning in this regard, researchers warn that overzealous optimism may pose a threat to society. The team of experts, led by Francesca Borgonovi from the University College London and Artur Pokropek from the Educational Research Institute in Warsaw, explain that social mobility is often lower in countries with greater inequality, potentially leading to frustration, disillusionment, and even social unrest among the youth.
Inequality on the Rise
In recent years, income disparities have expanded in many nations, including Germany, which has witnessed an increase in income inequality, albeit with a slight decline in the wage gap due to increased minimum wage.
This increasing inequality, combined with a stronger connection between a family's wealth and their children's future prospects, is now impeding upward mobility, according to the study. In essence, the phrase "a rising tide lifts all boats" does not necessarily hold true; yachts are lifted higher than dinghies.
The Great Gatsby Curve: A Known Pattern
Known as the Great Gatsby Curve, this pattern demonstrates a negative correlation between income inequality and intergenerational mobility. In societies with greater inequality, social mobility is generally lower. Surprisingly, young people's expectations of advancement are highest in countries where income differences are more pronounced, as evidenced by data from the Pisa study.
On average, many 15-year-olds from lower social backgrounds still anticipate reaching a higher status later on, even in countries like Germany. However, the figures are significantly higher in countries like Albania, Kazakhstan, Romania, and certain others, approaching 40%. In contrast, far fewer young people from the same background expect this in countries like South Korea, Malaysia, and France.
The Optimistic Youth
The responses of approximately 390,000 students from 57 countries were considered for the analysis. The students, aged 15, were asked to indicate where they saw themselves in their country’s social hierarchy at age 30, on a scale of 1 to 10. The majority of 15-year-olds anticipate surpassing their parents’ social status across all the studied countries, with education often being seen as the key to success.
Young people might find it difficult to discern whether status differences are due to personal drive, effort, and abilities or undeserved privileges, experts suggest. Their expectations may be influenced by prevailing success narratives that often do not align with the actual chances for upward mobility.
Maintaining Cohesion Amidst Change
During periods of sustained economic growth, this optimism doesn’t significantly impact society: As the general standard of living improves, young people achieve a better status than their parents while being relatively unaware of the increased chances for their more privileged peers. This contributes to preserving social cohesion, despite widening economic divisions.
However, as the economic landscape evolves, unfulfilled expectations can lead to decreased well-being, lower trust in institutions, reduced civic engagement, and even political unrest, as per the "Science" article.
Sources:- ntv.de, kst/dpa- The Great Gatsby Curve: Definition and Significance (Enrichment Data)
- The study published in Science journal, titled "Youthful Optimism and the Great Gatsby Paradox," reveals that youth in developing economies often express a stronger belief in their potential advancement compared to their counterparts in wealthy nations.
- The widening income inequality, as seen in Germany, poses a threat to social mobility, according to a study led by Francesca Borgonovi and Artur Pokropek, warning that it may lead to frustration and disillusionment among the youth.
- Even in countries with increased income inequality, such as Germany, many 15-year-olds anticipate reaching a higher social status at age 30, citing education as the key to success.
- The Great Gatsby Curve, a pattern highlighting a negative correlation between income inequality and intergenerational mobility, shows that in countries like Albania and Kazakhstan, young people's expectations of advancement are surprisingly high despite wider income differences.
- Despite the increasing inequality, unfulfilled expectations can have negative consequences on well-being, trust in institutions, civic engagement, and even lead to political unrest, as suggested in the Science article.
- Nations cannot overlook the importance of policy-and-legislation, education-and-self-development, finance, business, careers, health-and-wellness, mental-health, and politics in addressing these issues and maintaining social cohesion amidst economic change.
