Shrinking from Multiple Apps to a Single Platform: The Demise of the App-Dominated Period
In the last decade, the productivity landscape has been dominated by a proliferation of apps, each designed to address a specific niche problem, leading to an average person having 47 tabs open just to get work done. This app-centric approach, however, has come with its own set of challenges, such as constant switching costs, notification overload, and workflows fragmented across disconnected silos.
Enter the AI era. Microsoft, a leading tech company, is planning the development of an AI-based interface to connect and manage workflows, aiming to reduce the need for using multiple apps. This AI layer isn't an app itself, but a layer that sits above apps, protocols, and data, aiming to unify all interactions.
The AI interface acts as a partner, delegating tasks and executing them on behalf of the user. It reduces the need for manual input, allowing users to simply describe the outcome they want instead of typing commands. This shift from "knowing which app does what" to "describing the outcome" is profound, eliminating the need to open individual apps and pulling in data, context, and actions across all systems.
The AI agent executes tasks without the need for manual input, orchestrating steps based on the outcome desired. It remembers context across tasks, reducing the need for users to remember details. Furthermore, it eliminates the need for "tab gymnastics," allowing for a flow of work instead of fragmentation.
The collapse of apps into AI interfaces could lead to the death of switching costs, as agents don't care about the UI, only the API. It could also commoditise apps, with users no longer caring about which app is used as long as the task is completed.
However, this shift comes with risks, such as over-centralization, bias & opaqueness, and dependency. The battle, therefore, shifts from app features to AI orchestration, with the control of the AI interface determining the power in the user ecosystem.
In 2024 and beyond, we can expect a shift towards unification, with a single AI layer replacing dozens of apps. The productivity stack will collapse into a single, conversational layer, revolutionising the way we work and interact with technology.
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