Potential Dangers: The Potential Impact of Trump's Cuts to Weather Specialists on California's Safety
Hitting the Alarm on Thin Ice: Staff shortages, budget cuts threaten NOAA's weather forecasting and disaster response capacities
WASHINGTON - When a conflagration ignites in California, it's a laboratory miles away at the University of Maryland that partners with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to figure out where the smoke is heading. These unsung scientists help alert people downwind to harmful air quality levels before it's too late.
A stone's throw away, NOAA's Satellite Operations Facility pumps out most of the work needed for forecasting atmospheric rivers that offer both a lifeline and a threat to communities throughout California.
And it's the National Weather Service, working alongside seagoing buoys and orbiting satellites, predicting the likelihood of increased winds and dryness that could spark devastating fires in densely populated areas, like Los Angeles.
It's not just meteorologists and tech geeks getting the boot en masse, putting the quality of these life-saving programs in jeopardy, said Craig McLean, a 40-year NOAA veteran, who held the positions of assistant administrator for research and acting chief scientist before retiring in 2022.
The Trump administration is gunning to eliminate the entire research team that assists forecasters in making informed assessments. The Satellite Operations Facility has been slashed by deep layoffs. Contracts for equipment, like buoys, are on hold while under review by the Commerce Department.
This cascade of delays could hit us like a ton of bricks, McLean warned. "The forecast risk has already landed on our doorstep," he said to The Times. "I think it's ludicrous to assume it's not - whether it's for the fire season and hydrology, whether it's for the atmospheric rivers and the deluge, or whether it's just for the high wind."
No Raincheck on Cuts
The Trump administration's staff reductions at NOAA, resulting in a roughly 15% decrease in its workforce, appear to encompass the entire agency, according to self-reporting from employees and the National Weather Service Employees Organization. But the agency itself has been tight-lipped on the extent of its reductions.
"When the voluntary early retirement separation initiative was put up, in one day, NOAA lost 27,000 person years of experience, which is astounding in an agency of what was formerly 12,000 personnel," said Rick Spinrad, who served as administrator of the agency under President Biden.
"Much of what takes place at NOAA is interpretive," he added. "At the end of the day, when your weather forecast office or your local sea grant extension agent informs you of what might happen, there's a lot of interpretation of the environment, local geography, local roads. That experience is now gone."
But if NOAA and the National Weather Service are caught flat-footed for hazardous weather events entering both the Western fire season and the Eastern hurricane season, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) may be in an even more precarious position. FEMA has shed nearly one-third of its staff since January. This week, Reuters reported that Trump's acting FEMA chief, David Richardson, informed staff he wasn't aware the country had a hurricane season.
Trump has already expressed concerns about rejecting disaster relief to states for political reasons. Early in his term, Trump issued conditions on disaster aid to California after fires ravaged Los Angeles and rejected requests for disaster relief from Democratic governors in both Washington and North Carolina.
With California's residents becoming more vulnerable to other natural disasters, FEMA recently canceled $33 million in grants for retrofitting homes to protect against earthquakes, causing "grave concern" among state officials, as Democratic Sen. Adam Schiff of California wrote in a letter to FEMA. "This move must be reversed before tragedy strikes next," Schiff said.
Ripple Effects on Fisheries and Ports
Each year, before fishing season begins, NOAA releases a series of scientific reports evaluating fish populations and environmental conditions, a basic safety measure to avoid permanent damage and overfishing along the American coastline.
But this spring, staff cuts forced the agency to take emergency action on the East Coast to allow fishing to start by May 1. In Alaska, it took Senators Dan Sullivan and Lisa Murkowski, both Republicans, to intervene and plead with the White House to enable fishing to resume.
Fishing ships might not set sail on schedule without reliable forecasts from the National Weather Service, potentially reducing the number of fishing days and consequently profits, crew members, and the availability of seafood.
According to a new United Nations report, seafood prices are expected to skyrocket due to Trump's tariff policies, which have hiked duties on seafood imports by 10% to 30%. "A fisherman who sets out to collect lobster pots or fish for tuna needs a reliable weather report," said Mark Spalding, president of the Ocean Foundation. "Everyone who relies on NOAA, from fisherman to shipping companies, to other businesses that rely on weather and the predictability of currents and storms, will feel less secure if not working blind."
Similar problems are cropping up for the country's largest ports, which lean on government experts in ocean monitoring that have departed. "The systems used to optimize the flow of ships in and out of the ports - the coastal ocean observing systems - are being compromised," Spinrad said. "The president's budget threatens to wipe out much of that capability."
Trouble Across the Pacific
In a speech over the weekend in Singapore, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could be imminent and pose a grave threat to the entire Pacific region, including the U.S. Hegseth touted U.S. partnerships across the region on maritime security - an acknowledgment that any conflict that might arise in the Pacific would mostly likely play out at sea.
Cuts to NOAA could undermine U.S. readiness, as McLean explained. "Since we have territories throughout the Pacific, NOAA is responsible for providing weather forecasts in those areas," McLean said. "The defense community doesn't operate independently of NOAA in military conflicts - they have meteorologists in the Air Force and the Navy. But they heavily rely on NOAA models and are largely guided by the forecasts offered by NOAA, particularly for bases, whether it's in Guam or Hawaii."
The military uses data generated by thousands of buoys tracked by NOAA - called the Argo Float Network - which is considered the gold standard in ocean monitoring. However, the Argo Float Network faces possible elimination from the Trump administration due to its connection to climate change. "There is a national defense component here," McLean said. "The defense community is dependent upon what NOAA provides, both in models and research."
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) collaborates with universities like the University of Maryland to predict wildfire threats in California, using data from unsung scientists.
- NOAA's Satellite Operations Facility is critical for forecasting atmospheric rivers, which are crucial for California communities.
- The National Weather Service, working with seagoing buoys and orbiting satellites, predicts weather patterns that could spark fires in densely populated areas like Los Angeles.
- The Trump administration's staff reductions at NOAA, resulting in a 15% decrease in its workforce, have put the quality of life-saving programs in jeopardy.
- TheTrump administration's plans include eliminating the entire research team that assists forecasters in making informed assessments and deep layoffs at the Satellite Operations Facility.
- Contracts for equipment like buoys are on hold while under review by the Commerce Department, potentially causing delays that could be disastrous.
- The loss of experienced NOAA staff could lead to misinterpretation of environmental data, affecting weather forecasts and disaster responses.
- If NOAA and the National Weather Service are caught flat-footed for hazardous weather events during both the Western fire season and the Eastern hurricane season, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) may be in a precarious position.
- The military relies on NOAA's weather forecasts and models for bases in regions like Guam and Hawaii, and any cuts to NOAA could undermine U.S. readiness in potential conflicts in the Pacific.
