Lack of Sufficient Child Population Exists.
By Jan Schumann, Stefan Peter, Gonne Garling, Daniel Puskepeleitis, Dennis Dreher, Michael Deutschmann, Hagen Meyer, and Uwe Freitang
Germany's birth rate is on a downward spiral, and the consequences are more pronounced in the Eastern regions. Childcare centers are shutting down, and employees are being let go. Conversely, the Western regions are witnessing the creation of new facilities.
In 2024, 693,000 children were born in Germany, marking the lowest number since 2013. The birth rate plunged by 5.9% in the West and a staggering 9.2% in the East. For the first time since 2006, there was no nationwide increase in the number of children in childcare last year.
Painful Realities in the East
The effects of this decline are most evident in the Eastern states. Even bustling cities like Leipzig (Saxony) are grappling with over 4,000 unused childcare spots. To prevent layoffs, the Saxon State Parliament has instituted a childcare freeze, pushing facilities to boost their staff-to-child ratio. However, this measure fails to prevent complete closures.
In Saxony-Anhalt, the childcare operator has imposed a hiring freeze, hindering the employment of 11 trainees and 30 educators with temporary contracts. Bernward Küper (62), CEO of the Association of Cities and Municipalities of Saxony-Anhalt, candidly states, "We're receiving reports of reduced hours and dismissals due to operational reasons from across the state."
Thuringia, with 36% fewer births compared to 2016, also faces the closure of childcare centers. In a survey, more than half of the providers claimed they would have to shut down at least one facility in the next five years. Thuringia's Finance Minister Katja Wolf (49, BSW) admitted on MDR, "Not all facilities will be able to be maintained."
Despite the state government refining the care quota at the beginning of the year—an initiative that cost providers €140 million more—many municipalities now allocate up to a quarter of their budget to childcare, according to Steffen Kania (50, CDU), President of the Association of Cities and Municipalities of Thuringia.
Booming Investments in the West
In stark contrast, the decline in birth rates offers the Western regions greater flexibility. A 2022 Bertelsmann study reveals a shortage of over 360,000 childcare places in the West.
In North Rhine-Westphalia, despite the decline in births, the number of places is still increasing—from 751,797 in the 2022/23 childcare year to the current 764,158 (an increase of over 12,000 places). Rather than trimming down like in the East, NRW Family Minister Josefine Paul (43, Greens) intends to "turn every screw" to address the supply shortage.
Hamburg, too, saw a decrease of 244 children in childcare from 2023 to 2024, yet they managed to open six childcare centers and did not close any in the second quarter of 2025.
Ulm (Baden-Württemberg) continues to face a high demand for childcare places. City spokesman Daniel Hadrys highlights their commitment to retaining existing staff and consistently recruiting new ones. In Sigmaringen (Baden-Württemberg), a city spokeswoman assures: "Personnel adjustments are not ruled out in the long term, but are not currently planned."
In Lower Saxony, the utilization rate in childcare centers dropped to 91% in October 2024. However, the Ministry of Culture in Hannover believes that "funding programs to improve the staff-to-child ratio through guidelines and funding formulas have a positive effect on the number of staff employed in childcare facilities."
Berlin, with around 19,000 unfilled kindergarten spots, has still managed to produce an additional 550 spots this year. Katharina Günther-Wünsch (42, CDU), Senator for Education, Youth, and Family, intends to capitalize on demographic trends strategically by investing in quality and training.
She plans for two days of professional development, "without compromising daily care". This forward-thinking stance is driven by the awareness that not only children, but also skilled workers are in short supply. Günther-Wünsch underscores the importance of continued improvement in working conditions to keep these workers engaged. The Berlin CDU politician also considers the kindergarten crisis an opportunity for meaningful change.
The squeeze on childcare facilities in Eastern Germany compared to Western Germany mirrors broader structural and socio-economic disparities rooted in historical legacies and current economic realities. Central strategies include preserving and updating valuable East German childcare institutions, adjusting labor policies, and leveraging regional financial aid. However, confronting deeply-seated economic weaknesses, demographic pressures, and regional inconsistencies remains a challenge in achieving equal childcare availability and workforce participation in Eastern Germany.
- In light of the various challenges facing the Eastern regions of Germany, there is a growing need for education and self-development programs that promote personal growth and learning, especially in areas such as leadership, policy-making, and economic development, to help revitalize the affected communities.
- While the Western regions of Germany continue to face a shortage of childcare places, there is also a requirement for ongoing learning and development opportunities for childcare facility staff, to ensure they can effectively manage the increasing demand and maintain high-quality care for children.
